I think two things happened here. The first is desktop OS's are still too wildly complicated for many people and most uses. Not the functionality, the interfaces. themselves. The second thing is that cloud computing moves a lot of the process onto the web.
I'm not saying that the days of the desktop and notebook and full blown OS's are over. I still need a full OS for editing images and web design - so far. I can't see "heavy" processes like audio and video editing, page layout and design, anything that would not tolerate bandwidth caps, latency and wonky connections going all web.
There's still a lot of "computer fear" out there. People buy a new computer with a new OS and are afraid to screw it up. Mac's OS X 10.7, Microsoft's Windows 7, even Ubuntu They barely felt in control before and now there's something all new to deal with. When someone asks "how do you connect a printer?" in this day and age there's something very wrong. Mac's OS X 10.7, Microsoft's Windows 7, even Ubuntu 11, have come a long way - but they're still complex. File/data management is complex and will become even more complex as the amount of data we can store on desktop and notebook computers grows. Correspondingly, desktop and notebook programs are getting more complex because these new computers have the horsepower to allow it. It may not be that anyone asked for these features or will ever need them. They exist because they can.
I think tablets in general are picking up momentum because people want something simpler, more portable, more direct. They had the "aha" moment. They can do a lot of what people would do with a desktop computer without the complexity. How much computer do you need to access and use the web, or send email? Not a lot. More mundane things like word processing and spreadsheets are in the cloud as well.
Before anyone thinks "yeah, but I need a computer to upload my pictures", the answer is not really. This isn't the case with a high-end cellphone. You can add an Eye-Fi card to most cameras and the pictures can upload to Eye-Fi's site or many other popular image hosting sites. The tablet doesn't need to store the images, just view, maybe do a little light editing. Of course, this is not for everyone. Some of us want to do our own post-processing of our RAW images. Adobe has already made a move to the tablet space with apps.
Web authoring has taken a dramatic turn. There are any number of ways to have a web presence these days and they all look pretty good. Weblogs are no longer just "diaries". They can be complete sites with traditional pages. The designs can be quite sophisticated. Then there are the social networks. At most, I use LinkedIn. I guess at some point I'll have to jump into Google+ since I already use their excellent Blogger. At some point I want to experiment with Adobe Muse - if they can make that a usable with a tablet. I'm sure Adobe will work that out.
The point is, the transition is happening. As people get their second or third device it will hit them: Wait a sec, I'm using this tablet more than my desktop and notebook more. A lot of my stuff is in the cloud. So why do I have these big, complicated, computers?
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